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Change; every change may not be welcome to most of us but a ‘Change’ comes always unannounced when it becomes due!

I write this short article in response to “A New World Order”, written by Krzysztof Rybinski, a partner in Ernst & Young and assistant professor at the Warsaw School of Economics - The article is (with minor editorial changes) the text of a talk delivered on 25 November 2008 at a seminar on "Reforming International Organisations" in Warsaw, co-organised by the British embassy and the Unia & Polska Foundation . The author require readers to think about the world in 2050, some of pertinent questions he raises are: QUOTE

  • Asia and Africa will see their population grow by 2.3 billion, US and Europe will hardly change. What would it mean for the world power balance?
  • Who will decide what is right and what is wrong?
  • Will financial news begin with what US stocks did or what Chinese and Indian stocks did?
  • What if Chindia once again accounts for 50% of world GDP, for 50% of world outward investments?
  • We may still debate our western values, but there is no way, no way we can impose them on Asia, Gulf or Africa in the 21st century. My kids are 7 and 11 and they are learning English, Internet and Chinese, three languages that will be spoken globally in the 21st century.

Therefore, historical context must be visited to how the World has reached where it is now, and what could and should be its future?

Louis XV fought many wars, supported the colonists during the American Revolution but nothing could resist the change - 'French Revolution' (1789-1799);

Enlightened through Renaissance and Embolden by French Revolution, the Europeans set out to colonize rest of the World; 1897 "diamond jubilee" of Queen Victoria's sixty years on the British throne saw quarter of the earth's land surface and a quarter of its population under her feet - British Colonies where indigenous population lived like slaves;

Romanized-Christian Europe could not stop Bolshevik Revolution in Russian (1917-18) and ‘Iron Curtain’ was drawn over 1/5 of the Planet earth (USSR) as an antithesis of economic policies then prevailing in Russia;

The great wealth amassed from all over the world lead the Europeans fought with themselves – WW I & II – they neither have inclination or an economic system which could help in equitable redistribution of wealth amongst and with the Colonizers;

Churchill sought help from their erstwhile colony, USA, and signed with Roosevelt Atlantic Charter (1941); “Roosevelt was delighted with the Charter, although he was unaware that Churchill had not the slightest intention of presiding over the demise of the British Empire (The World Challenge, p 146);

A former artillery officer, Truman succeeded as the President of the USA (April 1945), accelerated work on the project ‘Manhatten’, nuked Hiroshima and Nagasaki (August 1945) and thus the USA succeeded as Leader of the Capitalist World;

Tyranny is always limited to strong power but USSR economy and limitation in petroleum technology exposed here to an early demise; CIA started receiving disturbing monitoring reports on USSR’s technological limitations in pumping out Oil and Gas. One lobby in the USA was agreeable to help USSR with technology but the other took it as a golden chance in disintegrating the USSR who at last had to invade Afghanistan (1979) for reaching in warm waters. USA readily found money from Arab Sheikhs and cannon fodder from Afghanistan, thanks to low-priced Muslim Clergy, for fighting USSR, Iron Curtain was raised in 1989 and the USA became Policeman of the world – Sole Superpower!

Yet to come was "War of Terror" through invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq but USA’s necon leadership proved wanting in human values and statesmanship, thus now the world faces the economic meltdown and much worst come soon! Two scenarios look possible:

  1. another Bush-like personality (an agenda implementer and not a statesman) in the next decade might nuke the world – expected targets are Muslim countries on the pretext of so-called ‘terrorism’, or
  2. A new World Order in line with what Krzysztof Rybinski proposes will have to be evolved and enforced, better sooner than later.

The leaders of developed and powerful countries already missed an historical opportunity of chartering the World through cooperation sought in OPEC's Taif Report(1980); instead they engineered demise of USSR, managed decade long war between Iraq-Iran and ultimately invaded afghanistan and Iraq; yet, as a consequence of short-sighted policies evolved by vested interest groups and implemented by men and women breft of human values, the life is much worst even for majority of their own people and life is worst than death for majority in poor countries; many in Muslim countries, which at in fact neo-colonies, there is no dreath of youth who prefer death over an ignominious - la suicide bembers!

The enlightened public, particularly the academia, intelligenstia, writers, thinkers and opionion leaders in the developed countries must effectively forces their so-called democratically leaders to respect human sensibilities and stary the right course. 'Tricckle down,' 'debt theraphy', 'carrot and stick', and 'shock and awe' have not worked so far in benefitting even the majority population in the developed countries and will not work in future, therefore, better alternatives must be sought and adopted in anticipation for 'a change for better'.


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